November 18, 2021
Key Topics and Trends in October
In the long term, employment and GDP reveal much about the economic climate and typically trend with housing prices. GDP, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, gained 1.6% quarter-over-quarter in 2nd Quarter (2Q) 2021, which is about 1% higher than the long-term quarterly growth rate of 0.6%. To get back to pre-pandemic GDP levels, we need to continue to outpace the long-term growth rate. The substantial infusion of cash into the economy has boosted GDP, and we are on pace to fully recover.
The chart below illustrates the cost of the COVID recession and the projection at GDP’s current growth rate. While it depicts U.S. GDP from 2016 to 2Q 2021, it also illustrates economic patterns that occur in all recessions. GDP tends to grow at a fairly consistent rate during economic expansions. The green line exemplifies the expected GDP, had the pandemic never happened. As that green line shows, we are below where GDP was expected to be in 2Q 2021. In other words, we’re still underwater. However, unlike typical recoveries, which return to a steady state of growth but at a lower level, the current growth rate is far higher than normal and should bring us back to our pre-pandemic trajectory by the end of the 2nd Quarter 2022.
Another large government-sponsored infusion of cash into the economy is very unlikely to happen. We may, however, have another source of economic stimulus: the massive growth in entrepreneurship over the last 16 months. From 2004 to 2019, the United States averaged 2.8 million new business applications per year. In 2020, there were 4.36 million, and in 2021, there have been 3.68 million as of August. This means that over the past 20 months, the United States has seen 8 million new business applications.
The competitive nature of our economy incentivizes new business owners to produce, creating jobs and stimulating growth. While new businesses are not as stable as more mature companies, they are often more nimble than larger companies and can produce with fewer hurdles.
The large number of new business applications may also explain why established companies have found it difficult to fill job openings. It seems that a large number of workers may now be working for themselves. Although the difficulty with hiring employees poses troubling challenges to employers, it thankfully may not indicate a struggling economy.
Home prices tend not to experience meteoric rises if the economy is in dire straits. Because home prices have increased so rapidly over the last two years, we can assume that the economy is doing well. In the last five years, housing inventory has decreased by around 940,000 (59%). Over 700,000 of those homes were sold in the last two years alone. Due to the pandemic, housing demand rose to historically high levels and mortgage rates fell to historic lows. As shown in the chart below, we’re currently hovering near all-time low mortgage rates, which will likely remain for the rest of the year. Low rates incentivize buying due to the lower monthly payment.
Even with rising inventory, the market remains competitive for buyers, but conditions are making it an exceptional time for homeowners to sell. Low inventory means sellers will receive multiple offers with fewer concessions. Because sellers are often selling one home and buying another, it’s essential that sellers work with the right agents to ensure the transition goes smoothly.
October Housing Market Updates for San Francisco
During September 2021, in San Francisco, the median single-family home price declined for the third month in a row, moving further from the peak reached in June. Condo prices rose slightly but have stayed fairly stable in 2021. Year-over-year, single-family home prices increased meaningfully, up 12%, while condo prices rose 5%.
Single-family home inventory has declined significantly over the last five months and is now below pre-pandemic levels. To fully understand current inventory, we must look at it in the context of last year. In 2020, single-family home inventory increased to its highest level since 2011. From May to September 2020 (five months), inventory exploded. Despite such a meteoric rise, inventory fell even faster than it rose, which speaks to the desirability of San Francisco. By January 2021, inventory had declined to lower levels than in January 2020, then ticked up slightly from February to April before going lower from May to August 2021. As you can see from the chart, sales outpaced new listings in June, July, and August, dropping inventory below pre-pandemic levels. The uptick in new listings in September didn’t move inventory meaningfully higher. Sales in September are still quite high given that fewer homes are on the market. The sustained low inventory will likely cause prices to remain stable or appreciate throughout 2021.
The number of condos on the market increased slightly in September, breaking the trend toward pre-pandemic levels. Demand for condos has come back strong, and sales outpaced new listings in Jun width="100%"e, July, and August. Sales dropped off in September 2021, but it is too early to tell if this is the start of a new trend.
Both single-family homes and condos spent less time on the market in September 2021 than they did in September of last year. As we’ll see, the pace of sales has contributed to the low Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) over the past several months.
We can use MSI as a metric to judge whether the market favors buyers or sellers. The average MSI is three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). In September 2021, single-family home MSI fell to 1.4 months of supply, while condo MSI rose to 3.2 months of supply. The MSIs indicate that the market strongly favors sellers for single-family homes and is balanced for condos.
In summary, the high demand and low supply in San Francisco have driven home prices up over the last year, but the huge price appreciation is slowing. Inventory will likely remain historically low this year for single-family homes with the sustained high demand in the area. Overall, the housing market has shown its value through the pandemic and remains one of the most valuable asset classes. The data show that housing has remained consistently strong throughout this period.
We expect the number of new listings to slow in the coming months. However, the current market conditions can withstand a high number of new listings, and more sellers may choose to enter the market to capitalize on the high buyer demand. We expect the high demand to continue, and new houses on the market to sell quickly.
As always, we remain committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. Our crew of experienced professionals is happy to discuss the information we’ve shared in this newsletter. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home or condo.
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